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Thread: fumbles

  1. #1

    fumbles

    I have Najee Harris on my team and i know that he only loss the ball one time last year and it was in the palyoff game that the steelers were in and so far in the game i paly he has loss it more then we loss the ball in his collage and pro games is there a reason for i draft players that didnt fumble that much so i could hold on to the ball

  2. #2
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    Them's the bounces, I guess. We model off of actual player stats, but we build some randomness around it, and of course there are other variables where they might differ from their NFL performance. You're right, though, in that you can expect low-fumbling guys in the NFL to also be low-fumbling guys in Sandbox. It's just a low-frequency event, so random variations might be more noticeable.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin View Post
    Them's the bounces, I guess. We model off of actual player stats, but we build some randomness around it, and of course there are other variables where they might differ from their NFL performance. You're right, though, in that you can expect low-fumbling guys in the NFL to also be low-fumbling guys in Sandbox. It's just a low-frequency event, so random variations might be more noticeable.
    Is the next version that's rolling out going to minimize these random events? The frequency for fumbled snaps, personal fouls, holding on DLineman, offensive PI, neutral zone infractions on DB's, etc., is excessive. It's one thing to be beaten by a superior team and gameplan, it's another to be beaten because of something outside of our control that happens with an unrealistic irregularity.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Kingswood View Post
    Is the next version that's rolling out going to minimize these random events? The frequency for fumbled snaps, personal fouls, holding on DLineman, offensive PI, neutral zone infractions on DB's, etc., is excessive. It's one thing to be beaten by a superior team and gameplan, it's another to be beaten because of something outside of our control that happens with an unrealistic irregularity.


    Facts are, this is a good gaming Idea, however, as long as these guys with limited scope and ability are allowed to be the only architects, the sim and its evolution will continue to disappoint.

    Does the NFL have anyone involved with this project?

    Seems to me that the NFL Players Union and the League itself would put out a much better project with their names all over it.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kingswood View Post
    Is the next version that's rolling out going to minimize these random events? The frequency for fumbled snaps, personal fouls, holding on DLineman, offensive PI, neutral zone infractions on DB's, etc., is excessive. It's one thing to be beaten by a superior team and gameplan, it's another to be beaten because of something outside of our control that happens with an unrealistic irregularity.
    League-wide fumble and penalty rates between Sandbox and the NFL are similar. Both data sets are easily available and you can compare for yourself. Some penalties that are similar in nature are grouped (e.g. face mask, horse collar, unnecessary roughness, tripping, late hit and a bunch of others are lumped together as personal fouls).

    Kevin and I are Chiefs fans and neither of us will ever forget the “no-punt” playoff game against the Colts after the 2003 season. Over the previous two seasons Priest Holmes had carried the ball more than 600 times for more than 3000 yards with only 2 fumbles. Yet we arguably lost the game because Priest Holmes fumbled in that game. There are hundreds of incidents like this. Sometimes the random stuff determines the outcomes of games. It is frustrating as an NFL fan and frustrating as a Sandbox owner — but it is an essential part of the game.
    Lead Developer of Sandbox Simulations

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    Quote Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
    League-wide fumble and penalty rates between Sandbox and the NFL are similar. Both data sets are easily available and you can compare for yourself. Some penalties that are similar in nature are grouped (e.g. face mask, horse collar, unnecessary roughness, tripping, late hit and a bunch of others are lumped together as personal fouls).

    Kevin and I are Chiefs fans and neither of us will ever forget the “no-punt” playoff game against the Colts after the 2003 season. Over the previous two seasons Priest Holmes had carried the ball more than 600 times for more than 3000 yards with only 2 fumbles. Yet we arguably lost the game because Priest Holmes fumbled in that game. There are hundreds of incidents like this. Sometimes the random stuff determines the outcomes of games. It is frustrating as an NFL fan and frustrating as a Sandbox owner — but it is an essential part of the game.

    I beg to differ on the stats being similar. Jonathon Taylor only fumbled 4 times all last season in real life,
    yet in the Sim game just done he had 3!

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by tophardtjr View Post
    I beg to differ on the stats being similar. Jonathon Taylor only fumbled 4 times all last season in real life,
    yet in the Sim game just done he had 3!
    Yeah, people have been trying to tell these developers about their inadequacies for years, thier response has been to tell the clients that the clients don't know what they are talking about.

    Pretty tired of it myself.

    The concept has a future but it may not be here.

    Small minds fall prey to small mines

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    Quote Originally Posted by UmmBerrto View Post
    Yeah, people have been trying to tell these developers about their inadequacies for years, thier response has been to tell the clients that the clients don't know what they are talking about.

    Pretty tired of it myself.

    The concept has a future but it may not be here.

    Small minds fall prey to small mines

    Author Unknown

    I will be an active member for this season but when it comes time to re up for next year i probably wont.

  9. #9
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    Someone can check my math and assumptions, but here's a general comparison on fumbles.

    In the NFL in 2021, stathead.com shows 267 fumble recoveries by defensive players. There were 272 games played 17 weeks *16 games per week, so that averages out to 0.98 fumble turnovers per game on average. Some will be more, some will be less. That's not a perfect number because you might have offensive players creating turnovers or defensive players preventing turnovers on special teams, but it's in the right ball park.

    I don't have results over all leagues, but I looked in the three leagues where I have teams. We're through 13 weeks in those games, so we've played 13 weeks * 12 teams per week = 156 games. In my three leagues, the fumbles recovered by defenses are 72, 92, and 90. That averages out to 0.46, 0.59, and 0.58 fumbles lost per game. (I'd have to ask if that includes special teams fumbles or now, so it might be low.)

    So in my three leagues, fumbles are not happening at a high rate at all, and appear to be lower than the NFL rate. Now, in part that might be because offensive players who hold onto the ball may be concentrated in a 24-team league, or it could be randomness for low-likelihood events. I'm not sure. I think that low-probability events always cause a stir when they happen, in part because they are low-probability events, so the question in my mind s whether other leagues are seeing fumbles at a high rate. These are things we can look at. I can't talk about adjusting these things because I'm not a game programmer.

    I'll say that I feel like I see a lot of fumbles, but when the stats get added up they're not high, or at least not in the three leagues I'm playing. How many total fumble turnovers are people seeing?

    (And note that I'm only looking at fumble turnovers. Total fumbles will be a lot higher.

    Also note that it's midnight and I may not be thinking clearly, so if someone else can do a better analysis, feel free.
    Last edited by Kevin; 06-18-2022 at 06:21 AM.

  10. #10
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    In just my three league games there has been 6 lost fumbles, 4 by my team, all by my RB'S. I have Jonathon Taylor and Alvin Kamera as my running backs and a good solid Oline, so its not like i have crappy players making turnovers.

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