Free Agent wins the game

Just finished reading my play by play from yesterday's game. This is the second game I have lost to a free agent. The first game was to a free agent running back who went for over 150 yards and this was a free agent who returned a punt 89 yards to win the game 28-24. To be clear, I should never have let them be in the game (although I outgained them in total yards 393-171), but they scored on a 79 yard fumble recovery return and then that free agent punt return. I know flukes happen in the NFL, but this feels like I've been hit with two "generational" events in the course of 13 games.

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Originally Posted by Chilly

Just finished reading my play by play from yesterday's game. This is the second game I have lost to a free agent. The first game was to a free agent running back who went for over 150 yards and this was a free agent who returned a punt 89 yards to win the game 28-24. To be clear, I should never have let them be in the game (although I outgained them in total yards 393-171), but they scored on a 79 yard fumble recovery return and then that free agent punt return. I know flukes happen in the NFL, but this feels like I've been hit with two "generational" events in the course of 13 games.

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Your team must be from Cleveland

Ha Ha Ha

Or Detroit

Maybe New Jersey

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Originally Posted by Chilly

Just finished reading my play by play from yesterday's game. This is the second game I have lost to a free agent. The first game was to a free agent running back who went for over 150 yards and this was a free agent who returned a punt 89 yards to win the game 28-24. To be clear, I should never have let them be in the game (although I outgained them in total yards 393-171), but they scored on a 79 yard fumble recovery return and then that free agent punt return. I know flukes happen in the NFL, but this feels like I've been hit with two "generational" events in the course of 13 games.

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I know how you feel. I had a game where I lost a fumble on 3 drives in a row, on the first play of the drive. I'm just glad it was only a Challenge game.

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Originally Posted by Chilly

Just finished reading my play by play from yesterday's game. This is the second game I have lost to a free agent. The first game was to a free agent running back who went for over 150 yards and this was a free agent who returned a punt 89 yards to win the game 28-24. To be clear, I should never have let them be in the game (although I outgained them in total yards 393-171), but they scored on a 79 yard fumble recovery return and then that free agent punt return. I know flukes happen in the NFL, but this feels like I've been hit with two "generational" events in the course of 13 games.

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free agents perform WAY over what, should be, their expectations. If we keep complaining to CD, maybe he can get them to perform as they should. In the case of punt returns, they should be making fair catches on most, if not all the punts that they field.

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Originally Posted by smackawits

free agents perform WAY over what, should be, their expectations. If we keep complaining to CD, maybe he can get them to perform as they should. In the case of punt returns, they should be making fair catches on most, if not all the punts that they field.

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They are still NFL players who are on the bubble.

How many times has your team picked up an eight year veteran who was a cap casualty somewhere else.

Look, just know, Just because it says Street Free agent does not mean that these guys don't belong in the NFL.

Especially since it's only a 24 team league.

That means that full rosters from 8 NFL teams are on the street.

That's 88 offensive starters and 88 defensive starters are on the street in each league.

Plenty of talent that can show up in any and every game.

We are all sooooooo, EMO.

I'm almost ashamed to be associated with all this crybaby activity.

There is truth to what you say Umm, however, the cap casualties you speak of are already accounted for...we sorted through them in our free agency. The Street Free Agent is akin to an emergency mid-season acquisition. That is why I said "generational" in my rant. I can see a team bringing in an emergency player and that guy having a standout game or even season. But for me to play in 2 games in one season where a street free agent or emergency fill in wins the game is on the odds of winning the Lotto. Either reduce the street free agent value (and force GM's to build a roster correctly or suffer the consequences of low performance...as is the typical result of an emergency fill in) or provide a method of obtaining free agents within the league as would occur in UmmBerrto's example.

Rant over...thank you.

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Originally Posted by UmmBerrto

They are still NFL players who are on the bubble.

How many times has your team picked up an eight year veteran who was a cap casualty somewhere else.

Look, just know, Just because it says Street Free agent does not mean that these guys don't belong in the NFL.

Especially since it's only a 24 team league.

That means that full rosters from 8 NFL teams are on the street.

That's 88 offensive starters and 88 defensive starters are on the street in each league.

Plenty of talent that can show up in any and every game.

We are all sooooooo, EMO.

I'm almost ashamed to be associated with all this crybaby activity.

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At season end we'll do a summary of free agent performance just to see how they compare to named players. We can make adjustments. We don't want them to be TOO bad, and I think they're generally set to be a bit below the worst expected performances by named players, but it doesn't mean that flukes can't happen. Over the course of 192 games in a sandbox season, some flukes are going to happen.

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Originally Posted by Kevin

At season end we'll do a summary of free agent performance just to see how they compare to named players. We can make adjustments. We don't want them to be TOO bad, and I think they're generally set to be a bit below the worst expected performances by named players, but it doesn't mean that flukes can't happen. Over the course of 192 games in a sandbox season, some flukes are going to happen.

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there are WAY more flukes happening than should happen......and I disagree with your intended outlook.....SFA SHOULD perform WAY below the worst player on any roster.

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Originally Posted by smackawits

there are WAY more flukes happening than should happen......and I disagree with your intended outlook.....SFA SHOULD perform WAY below the worst player on any roster.

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Just saw this in a challenge lol



free agent 21/26 247y 2td 0int 80.8% 9.51ypa 131.9QBR

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Originally Posted by Kingswood

Just saw this in a challenge lol



free agent 21/26 247y 2td 0int 80.8% 9.51ypa 131.9QBR

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SIGN HIM UP!!!

Oh wait, you can't....

I've dialed back SFA RB performance a few weeks ago. A SFA HB could still rip off a 60 yard run (with lower probability than before the adjustment), in which case their YPC will still be good even if every other run in that game is less then 3 yards.

All NFL players have good games and bad games. So it is possible that a SFA will have a good game from time to time. In a small sample size it is easy to sample well above the mean performance of a given player. Context also matters. If you have an all star surrounding cast, a FA can look decent. But averaged over a bunch of games, SFA are going to perform worse within context that average players.

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Originally Posted by cdcox

I've dialed back SFA RB performance a few weeks ago. A SFA HB could still rip off a 60 yard run (with lower probability than before the adjustment), in which case their YPC will still be good even if every other run in that game is less then 3 yards.

All NFL players have good games and bad games. So it is possible that a SFA will have a good game from time to time. In a small sample size it is easy to sample well above the mean performance of a given player. Context also matters. If you have an all star surrounding cast, a FA can look decent. But averaged over a bunch of games, SFA are going to perform worse within context that average players.

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that's a start......now let's dial back the QB ratings of 130+, 88 yard KO returns, 60 yard punt returns........

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Originally Posted by cdcox

I've dialed back SFA RB performance a few weeks ago. A SFA HB could still rip off a 60 yard run (with lower probability than before the adjustment), in which case their YPC will still be good even if every other run in that game is less then 3 yards.

All NFL players have good games and bad games. So it is possible that a SFA will have a good game from time to time. In a small sample size it is easy to sample well above the mean performance of a given player. Context also matters. If you have an all star surrounding cast, a FA can look decent. But averaged over a bunch of games, SFA are going to perform worse within context that average players.

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that's a start......now let's dial back the QB ratings of 130+, 88 yard KO returns, 60 yard punt returns........