Just paid to join. Looks like $18 a pop might be worth more than renewals and lack of randomness. (...in the first few topics I've seen comments about)
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Just paid to join. Looks like $18 a pop might be worth more than renewals and lack of randomness. (...in the first few topics I've seen comments about)
You and Cox are correct. NFL teams average a fumble every 2 games. My leagues tend to be right around that average in league play. I'm not sure about Challenges since we don't have the stats. The only way I could see the challenges being different would be if some of those parameters in the league are utilizing season averages as well as game averages to minimize the probability of an unrealistic season. Using the word frequency is my mistake. I guess my question is more in line with consistency? I've had a game where 3 straight drives began and ended on the first play with a fumbled snap. I've had a few games where we're trading interceptions 3-4 straight drives. Now obviously these things are possible but the probability of it happening in sequence that many times is negligible. I've noticed this tends to happen with penalties, too, where the defense will consistently save the offense throughout the drive. Now obviously that happens plenty but I just wanted to point out the trend. It seems these low probability events are clustering together instead of being spread out which gives it the impression that these are more constant than they truly are. Having up to 6 challenge games a day, too, obviously is going to increase the amount of low probability events that we experience. Is it possible to decrease the odds of these events after they've already occurred?
Challenges and league games run under the exact same code. Any differences that people are perceiving is just our human nature to find patterns whether they are there or not. Similar to how we find shapes of familiar objects in clouds.
I have been thinking about your suggestion about decreasing the frequency of rare events once they have already happened during the last couple days for the next version of the simulator. I haven't thought it 100% through yet in terms of what events should be filtered. We've all seen the same penalty called on the same player twice within a few drives in an NFL game. So that should not be filtered out. Three times, is much less common and maybe should be filtered. Jonathan Taylor fumbling 3 times in one game would happen twice in 1000 games based on his 2021 fumble rate. Not impossible, but incredibly rare.
Still thinking about the pros and cons of this idea.