fumbles

[pit1232]

I have Najee Harris on my team and i know that he only loss the ball one time last year and it was in the palyoff game that the steelers were in and so far in the game i paly he has loss it more then we loss the ball in his collage and pro games is there a reason for i draft players that didnt fumble that much so i could hold on to the ball

[Kevin]

Them's the bounces, I guess. We model off of actual player stats, but we build some randomness around it, and of course there are other variables where they might differ from their NFL performance. You're right, though, in that you can expect low-fumbling guys in the NFL to also be low-fumbling guys in Sandbox. It's just a low-frequency event, so random variations might be more noticeable.

[Kingswood]

Them's the bounces, I guess. We model off of actual player stats, but we build some randomness around it, and of course there are other variables where they might differ from their NFL performance. You're right, though, in that you can expect low-fumbling guys in the NFL to also be low-fumbling guys in Sandbox. It's just a low-frequency event, so random variations might be more noticeable.

Is the next version that's rolling out going to minimize these random events? The frequency for fumbled snaps, personal fouls, holding on DLineman, offensive PI, neutral zone infractions on DB's, etc., is excessive. It's one thing to be beaten by a superior team and gameplan, it's another to be beaten because of something outside of our control that happens with an unrealistic irregularity.

[UmmBerrto]

Is the next version that's rolling out going to minimize these random events? The frequency for fumbled snaps, personal fouls, holding on DLineman, offensive PI, neutral zone infractions on DB's, etc., is excessive. It's one thing to be beaten by a superior team and gameplan, it's another to be beaten because of something outside of our control that happens with an unrealistic irregularity.



Facts are, this is a good gaming Idea, however, as long as these guys with limited scope and ability are allowed to be the only architects, the sim and its evolution will continue to disappoint.

Does the NFL have anyone involved with this project?

Seems to me that the NFL Players Union and the League itself would put out a much better project with their names all over it.

[cdcox]

Is the next version that's rolling out going to minimize these random events? The frequency for fumbled snaps, personal fouls, holding on DLineman, offensive PI, neutral zone infractions on DB's, etc., is excessive. It's one thing to be beaten by a superior team and gameplan, it's another to be beaten because of something outside of our control that happens with an unrealistic irregularity.

League-wide fumble and penalty rates between Sandbox and the NFL are similar. Both data sets are easily available and you can compare for yourself. Some penalties that are similar in nature are grouped (e.g. face mask, horse collar, unnecessary roughness, tripping, late hit and a bunch of others are lumped together as personal fouls).

Kevin and I are Chiefs fans and neither of us will ever forget the “no-punt” playoff game against the Colts after the 2003 season. Over the previous two seasons Priest Holmes had carried the ball more than 600 times for more than 3000 yards with only 2 fumbles. Yet we arguably lost the game because Priest Holmes fumbled in that game. There are hundreds of incidents like this. Sometimes the random stuff determines the outcomes of games. It is frustrating as an NFL fan and frustrating as a Sandbox owner — but it is an essential part of the game.

[tophardtjr]

League-wide fumble and penalty rates between Sandbox and the NFL are similar. Both data sets are easily available and you can compare for yourself. Some penalties that are similar in nature are grouped (e.g. face mask, horse collar, unnecessary roughness, tripping, late hit and a bunch of others are lumped together as personal fouls).

Kevin and I are Chiefs fans and neither of us will ever forget the “no-punt” playoff game against the Colts after the 2003 season. Over the previous two seasons Priest Holmes had carried the ball more than 600 times for more than 3000 yards with only 2 fumbles. Yet we arguably lost the game because Priest Holmes fumbled in that game. There are hundreds of incidents like this. Sometimes the random stuff determines the outcomes of games. It is frustrating as an NFL fan and frustrating as a Sandbox owner — but it is an essential part of the game.


I beg to differ on the stats being similar. Jonathon Taylor only fumbled 4 times all last season in real life,
yet in the Sim game just done he had 3!

[UmmBerrto]

I beg to differ on the stats being similar. Jonathon Taylor only fumbled 4 times all last season in real life,
yet in the Sim game just done he had 3!

Yeah, people have been trying to tell these developers about their inadequacies for years, thier response has been to tell the clients that the clients don't know what they are talking about.

Pretty tired of it myself.

The concept has a future but it may not be here.

Small minds fall prey to small mines

Author Unknown

[tophardtjr]

Yeah, people have been trying to tell these developers about their inadequacies for years, thier response has been to tell the clients that the clients don't know what they are talking about.

Pretty tired of it myself.

The concept has a future but it may not be here.

Small minds fall prey to small mines

Author Unknown


I will be an active member for this season but when it comes time to re up for next year i probably wont.

[Kevin]

Someone can check my math and assumptions, but here's a general comparison on fumbles.

In the NFL in 2021, stathead.com shows 267 fumble recoveries by defensive players. There were 272 games played 17 weeks *16 games per week, so that averages out to 0.98 fumble turnovers per game on average. Some will be more, some will be less. That's not a perfect number because you might have offensive players creating turnovers or defensive players preventing turnovers on special teams, but it's in the right ball park.

I don't have results over all leagues, but I looked in the three leagues where I have teams. We're through 13 weeks in those games, so we've played 13 weeks * 12 teams per week = 156 games. In my three leagues, the fumbles recovered by defenses are 72, 92, and 90. That averages out to 0.46, 0.59, and 0.58 fumbles lost per game. (I'd have to ask if that includes special teams fumbles or now, so it might be low.)

So in my three leagues, fumbles are not happening at a high rate at all, and appear to be lower than the NFL rate. Now, in part that might be because offensive players who hold onto the ball may be concentrated in a 24-team league, or it could be randomness for low-likelihood events. I'm not sure. I think that low-probability events always cause a stir when they happen, in part because they are low-probability events, so the question in my mind s whether other leagues are seeing fumbles at a high rate. These are things we can look at. I can't talk about adjusting these things because I'm not a game programmer.

I'll say that I feel like I see a lot of fumbles, but when the stats get added up they're not high, or at least not in the three leagues I'm playing. How many total fumble turnovers are people seeing?

(And note that I'm only looking at fumble turnovers. Total fumbles will be a lot higher.

Also note that it's midnight and I may not be thinking clearly, so if someone else can do a better analysis, feel free.

[tophardtjr]

In just my three league games there has been 6 lost fumbles, 4 by my team, all by my RB'S. I have Jonathon Taylor and Alvin Kamera as my running backs and a good solid Oline, so its not like i have crappy players making turnovers.

[Kenny B. Stopped]

Just paid to join. Looks like $18 a pop might be worth more than renewals and lack of randomness. (...in the first few topics I've seen comments about)

[Kingswood]

Someone can check my math and assumptions, but here's a general comparison on fumbles.

In the NFL in 2021, stathead.com shows 267 fumble recoveries by defensive players. There were 272 games played 17 weeks *16 games per week, so that averages out to 0.98 fumble turnovers per game on average. Some will be more, some will be less. That's not a perfect number because you might have offensive players creating turnovers or defensive players preventing turnovers on special teams, but it's in the right ball park.

I don't have results over all leagues, but I looked in the three leagues where I have teams. We're through 13 weeks in those games, so we've played 13 weeks * 12 teams per week = 156 games. In my three leagues, the fumbles recovered by defenses are 72, 92, and 90. That averages out to 0.46, 0.59, and 0.58 fumbles lost per game. (I'd have to ask if that includes special teams fumbles or now, so it might be low.)

So in my three leagues, fumbles are not happening at a high rate at all, and appear to be lower than the NFL rate. Now, in part that might be because offensive players who hold onto the ball may be concentrated in a 24-team league, or it could be randomness for low-likelihood events. I'm not sure. I think that low-probability events always cause a stir when they happen, in part because they are low-probability events, so the question in my mind s whether other leagues are seeing fumbles at a high rate. These are things we can look at. I can't talk about adjusting these things because I'm not a game programmer.

I'll say that I feel like I see a lot of fumbles, but when the stats get added up they're not high, or at least not in the three leagues I'm playing. How many total fumble turnovers are people seeing?

(And note that I'm only looking at fumble turnovers. Total fumbles will be a lot higher.

Also note that it's midnight and I may not be thinking clearly, so if someone else can do a better analysis, feel free.

You and Cox are correct. NFL teams average a fumble every 2 games. My leagues tend to be right around that average in league play. I'm not sure about Challenges since we don't have the stats. The only way I could see the challenges being different would be if some of those parameters in the league are utilizing season averages as well as game averages to minimize the probability of an unrealistic season. Using the word frequency is my mistake. I guess my question is more in line with consistency? I've had a game where 3 straight drives began and ended on the first play with a fumbled snap. I've had a few games where we're trading interceptions 3-4 straight drives. Now obviously these things are possible but the probability of it happening in sequence that many times is negligible. I've noticed this tends to happen with penalties, too, where the defense will consistently save the offense throughout the drive. Now obviously that happens plenty but I just wanted to point out the trend. It seems these low probability events are clustering together instead of being spread out which gives it the impression that these are more constant than they truly are. Having up to 6 challenge games a day, too, obviously is going to increase the amount of low probability events that we experience. Is it possible to decrease the odds of these events after they've already occurred?

[cdcox]

You and Cox are correct. NFL teams average a fumble every 2 games. My leagues tend to be right around that average in league play. I'm not sure about Challenges since we don't have the stats. The only way I could see the challenges being different would be if some of those parameters in the league are utilizing season averages as well as game averages to minimize the probability of an unrealistic season. Using the word frequency is my mistake. I guess my question is more in line with consistency? I've had a game where 3 straight drives began and ended on the first play with a fumbled snap. I've had a few games where we're trading interceptions 3-4 straight drives. Now obviously these things are possible but the probability of it happening in sequence that many times is negligible. I've noticed this tends to happen with penalties, too, where the defense will consistently save the offense throughout the drive. Now obviously that happens plenty but I just wanted to point out the trend. It seems these low probability events are clustering together instead of being spread out which gives it the impression that these are more constant than they truly are. Having up to 6 challenge games a day, too, obviously is going to increase the amount of low probability events that we experience. Is it possible to decrease the odds of these events after they've already occurred?

Challenges and league games run under the exact same code. Any differences that people are perceiving is just our human nature to find patterns whether they are there or not. Similar to how we find shapes of familiar objects in clouds.

I have been thinking about your suggestion about decreasing the frequency of rare events once they have already happened during the last couple days for the next version of the simulator. I haven't thought it 100% through yet in terms of what events should be filtered. We've all seen the same penalty called on the same player twice within a few drives in an NFL game. So that should not be filtered out. Three times, is much less common and maybe should be filtered. Jonathan Taylor fumbling 3 times in one game would happen twice in 1000 games based on his 2021 fumble rate. Not impossible, but incredibly rare.

Still thinking about the pros and cons of this idea.

[UmmBerrto]

Just paid to join. Looks like $18 a pop might be worth more than renewals and lack of randomness. (...in the first few topics I've seen comments about)


I'm not quite sure I understand what it was you were trying to convey.

Welcome, to the sim.

Would you reiterate what you were feeling at the time?

[Kingswood]

Just paid to join. Looks like $18 a pop might be worth more than renewals and lack of randomness. (...in the first few topics I've seen comments about)

We're all just a bunch of cry babies and *******s. We really shouldn't be complaining since it's only 5 cents a day to play. There will be things you're stoked about and things that will make you want to punt goldfish but we keep logging in everyday.

[Wind From West]

We're all just a bunch of cry babies and *******s. We really shouldn't be complaining since it's only 5 cents a day to play. There will be things you're stoked about and things that will make you want to punt goldfish but we keep logging in everyday.

Where's the LIKE button, lol?!